What likely to happen if 10000 women under the age of 50 have a mammogram?
If 10000 women under the age of 50 have a mammogram, 640 women will have an abnormal mammogram, and averaged 2 examinations will be made to each of them.
One hundred and fifty of these women will have a surgical biopsy. Among the 640 with an abnormal mammogram, 17 will prove to be carriers of a breast cancer and in the best case mammography have prevented a death by breast cancer. More deaths from breast cancer can not be avoided because the majority of breast cancers are not fatal breast cancers.
The time spent, anxiety and discomfort among 623 women who had undergone further examinations, even if they do not have breast cancer may be acceptable for some women even though the best screening will permit prevent a single death from breast cancer among the 17 who are to develop breast cancer.
These figures are based on the best information currently available and are minimum estimates of the number of abnormal mammograms, tests, biopsies and surgical lives saved.
References:
Salzmann P, Kerlikowske K, K. Phillips Cost-effectiveness of extending screening mammography programs to include women 40-49 years old. General J Intern Med 1997; 12:63.
Kerlikowske K, J. Barclay Outcomes of modern screening mammography. Mongraph Natl Cancer Inst 1997; 22:105-111.
Elmore JG, Barton MB, Moceri VM, Fletcher SW. Cumulative risk of a false-positive mammogram over a 10-year period. General J Intern Med 1997; 12:107.
Kerlikowske K, Grady D, Barclay J, Sickles EA, Eaton A, Ernster V. Positive predictive value of screening mammography by age and family history of breast cancer. JAMA 1993; 270:2444-2450
